Kamala Harris Leads Trump: A Closer Look at Voter Sentiment in the 2024 Presidential Race

As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, new data from the Angus Reid Institute sheds light on how Americans are aligning their support. With Vice President Kamala Harris now officially leading former President Donald Trump among registered voters, the dynamics of the election are beginning to take shape.  

Harris’s Lead: Harris enjoys a five-point lead over Trump, with specific support metrics for younger voters (59% for Harris among 18-34-year-olds), Black voters (67% for Harris), and Hispanic voters (57% for Harris). 

Turnout Challenges: Harris facing the historial challenge of converting younger voters’ enthusiasm into votes, contrast with Trump’s strong support among older voters who turn out in higher numbers. 

Gender Bias: 74% of voters believe it’s harder for a woman to be elected, despite 59% saying there’s no difference in job competence between genders. 

Emotional Sentiment 71% of Harris supporters feeling “hopeful” about her potential victory, compared to 63% of Trump supporters.  

Top Issues: The cost of living being the top concern for 28% of voters, followed by other significant issues like the economy, border security, healthcare, and reproductive rights, with a specific note on the importance of reproductive rights to women. 

Leadership Perceptions: Harris has a slight edge in favorability (47% vs. 43% for Trump) and the polarization of both candidates. 

Race and Gender Dynamics: 35% see Harris’s identity as an advantage, 13% as a disadvantage, with the rest seeing it as making no difference. 

Harris Gains Ground but Faces Turnout Challenges 

Polling data from the Democratic National Convention shows Kamala Harris holding a five-point lead over Donald Trump. Her support is strongest among younger voters (18-34), Black voters, and Hispanic voters. However, the challenge remains to convert this enthusiasm into votes, as younger voters historically show lower turnout rates. In contrast, Trump continues to dominate among older voters, a demographic that consistently turns out in higher numbers. 

Gender Biases Pose a Barrier for Harris 

Harris’s historic candidacy still faces obstacles. Three-quarters of voters believe it’s harder for a woman to be elected to high office, even though the majority (59%) feel that gender doesn’t impact job competence. Overcoming these biases will be critical for Harris as she aims to maintain her lead. 

Hope and Fear Drive Voter Sentiment 

The 2024 election is charged with emotion. Among Harris supporters, 71% feel “hopeful” about her potential victory, while 63% of Trump supporters say the same for their candidate. However, these feelings are tempered by significant worry and fear about the other side winning, with both camps expressing concerns about the future if their preferred candidate loses. 

Top Issues: Cost of Living Takes Priority 

The rising cost of living is the dominant issue for voters, cited by 28% as their top concern. Other major issues include the economy, border security, healthcare, and reproductive rights, the latter being especially important to women in the wake of Roe v. Wade’s overturning. 

Leadership Perceptions: Harris Holds a Slim Edge 

Harris currently enjoys a slight edge in favorability over Trump, with 47% of voters viewing her positively versus 43% for Trump. This advantage is particularly strong among non-white voters, though both candidates remain polarizing figures. 

Race and Gender in the 2024 Election 

Harris’s identity as the first Black and South Asian woman to run for president on a major party ticket is seen as an advantage by some voters (35%), while others view it as a disadvantage (13%). This dynamic, along with gender biases, will play a critical role in the election. 

Final Thoughts 

These findings from the Angus Reid Institute highlight key dynamics in the 2024 election. While Harris leads, the challenges of voter turnout and overcoming gender biases are significant. For a deeper dive into the data, explore the full report 

Angus Reid USA conducted an online survey from Aug. 19-23, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 1,758 American registered voters who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by Angus Reid USA.

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